Political Research - Praying for Rain on Election Day

Running for office at any level requires a myriad of skills. Resourcing, outsourcing, researching, fund raising, run-blocking, bullet dodging, story spinning...and, er, maintaining brevity of message. Over the past twenty years as a political and media consultant, there is one desirable skill I have yet to obtain. I can't control the weather.

Don't worry, my desire is not to out-maneuver the Justice League of America and topple world governments with some grand plot worthy of the comics.

Research and polling are, of course, part of any comprehensive approach to election day success. If you have a small budget, do random polls of fifty people in your district. If you have the funds, hire a professional firm to map the landscape. We all know that this research 1) ascertains your probability of success and 2) plots the path to success. It is important to realize that it also can show you under what conditions success is most likely. How will you feel if it is in your best interest for most of the electorate to stay home?

Even when you perfectly research and analyze, sometimes a lucky event is needed. Bite the bullet and admit you are in it to win; pray for rain and let them stay home.
Even when you have done all the research and have all the data at your disposal, you miss the critical connection. Suck it up and learn a hard lesson, for not even rain may save you. I have a good example of this situation.

As media advisor for the 2006 Texas U.S. Senatorial candidate, I did extensive research. No assumptions were made. The candidate was Barbara Ann Radnofsky – a last name too difficult for traditional recognition techniques, like repetition. The campaign planned an entire media approach around the name “Barbara Ann.” How much more Texan can you get than “Barbara Ann?” Overnight the yard sign and bumper sticker design changed. Print media and banners at events displayed “Barbara Ann.” Most made the assumption that the label “Barbara Ann” was the best choice. I did not.

Experienced political consultants are cautious: too many years, too many assumptions, too many burns. In polling, I included questions about “Barbara Ann.” The most basic question was, “Do you like the name 'Barbara Ann?'” Twenty-one percent did not. This percentage fell into two age and ethnic groups. The old yard signs were still sitting in storage. We could have easily distributed them on a geo-demographic basis. We could have easily customized emails to these groups.

But it was too late. So, do your research. Never hesitate to run a regression of one statistic against another. Always poll on questions that challenge your core assumptions and strategy.
Be ready to pray for rain.

Media Love for Hillary Clinton Is a Republican Asset for 2008

I am not sure when it happened, but recently the American media decided that Hillary Clinton will be the next President. They didn't even wait for Oprah's endorsement. As a political consultant and researcher, I am used to rhetoric being offered as fact. But this time around, a new variable requires greater skepticism. In the 2008 Presidential election, will voters support a female?

The assumption is yes. The voices of this election refuse to address this issue in fear of being banished to the island of the non-P.C. In attempt to communicate forward-thinking views, serious examination of the gender effect has been omitted. “Look at me, I won't even acknowledge Hillary's gender because society has moved past this consideration.” But in fact, a real dialog on America's historical and continued evolution beyond discrimination has been lost. With over twenty years of political work, I know that selling a candidate requires answering the most difficult questions first.

In the 2006 U.S. Senatorial campaign, I was presented with a female candidate who was relatively unknown and saddled with a last name that was unwieldy. What to do? The logical solution was to emphasize her first name. The incumbent was also a woman and two very different female names was a good way to set up a natural contrast. We decided to change all of the print materials and yard signs to display “BARBARA.” I was confident in the decision, but needed research to confirm.

My firm (www.scottradio.com) conducts political research using a unique algorithm. Our results are trusted because of our accuracy. We included name response along with the issue research we did for this candidate. Surprise, over twenty percent of likely voters did not like the name Barbara. More importantly, they fell into two distinct groups which could be specifically targeted with a different approach.

Recent Gallop Polls have indicated that nearly 90% of American voters would support a female presidential candidate. This could be misleading, as it is the politically correct response to give. In my own surveys, I have inquired “Would you vote for a women for the office of ...?” This is quite different asking if a voter prefers candidate A over candidate B, where candidate A is female. It is not a matter of politics, but rather of voter evolution. The person who actually casts a ballot in America might not be ready to vote for a female in the quantity required for an Electoral College victory.

Scott Perreault is CEO of Scott Radio (www.scottradio.com) a Political Advertising Agency and Voice Works specializing in Radio. We represent National, State and local candidates or issue campaigns. Over twenty years experience. 2006-2008 Agency of record for U.S. Senate Campaign in Texas. We assist Independents, Republicans and Democrats. Scott Radio services include: Voice Work, Advertising Agency, Research, Publishing and Political Consulting.

Are All Votes Equally Important? The Art of Political Triage.

As a media consultant and advisor during a major political campaign I am often asked to field inquiries from supporters of the candidate. Many have words of encouragement, some have constructive criticism and some have serious emotional issues requiring professional attention. If you have ever been part of a political campaign you understand my words.

From the moment campaign headquarters' front door swings open, the nature of the beast is apparent. Imagine the excitement and affirmation felt when the first volunteer walks in to sign up. Now imagine what dark details you might not be aware. Say, perhaps, that this person has been kindly removed from every campaign headquarters in this past thirty years. “People issues.”

Many people don't anticipate having to be a personnel director. But someone has to do it. Read books on the art of rejection: How to fire, how to say no, how to remain polite. Each volunteer has unique motives for helping the campaign. Few are sinister, most are heartfelt and true. Respect the differences, but demand they work within the framework and structure you have put in place.

Despite best efforts, eventually the tough question must be asked: Are all votes equal? The public answer is always Yes. In reality, this is not the case. On some level it is all quid pro quo. You must develop a finely tuned filter – know where to draw the line. Most cold calls and emails will serve only to distract. Have a standard thank you email reply form. End the dialog quickly. Stay true to your message and maintain your campaign's integrity.

Radio stations treat listeners the same way you should treat solicitous voters. They certainly don't play every song request called in. They have invested millions of dollars in staff, equipment, advertising, programming and market testing to target a specific audience. It is important to understand that the typical request caller might not be a good match for the typical listener. Similarly, complaints about the music come from individuals. No matter how many complaints are received, the station knows its music is the best fit for the target audience.
This isn't to say such input should be brushed off. When a listener calls to complain about the music, he is made to feel that action will be taken. When a listener calls to request a song, she is told that it will play soon. Always listening, always placating, always providing a caring voice, but never deviating from the goal.

Take these lessons from radio and apply them to your campaign. Essentially, trust your numbers and demographic research. The angry listener will listen again. Unsatisfied voters will still vote – they called you, not the other guy. Stick with the message your candidate believes in and is supported by numbers.

Oh, and don't put it past your opposition to swamp you with distracting emails and phone calls.
Stay focused. Have responses posted and ready for all negative comments. In the end, they are unimportant.

2008 Elections and Radio Advertising

With the 2008 campaigns underway, the question to ask is: “How do we get our message to the voters in the most cost effective way?”

Two key parts to winning an election are Name Recognition and Voter Connection. Having worked with all level of campaigns for the past twenty years, most recently the US Senate race in Texas, I know that radio is the most cost effective method to promote a candidate.
Name Recognition comes from repetition. There is no short-cut, no way around this. Heard enough times, a name gets remembered. Yard signs – those visual polluters – are the perfect example of a campaign's attempt to repetitively broadcast through a cost effective medium. However, this only works if the name is simple and the candidate is known. If funds are unlimited, feel free to stake your place in every yard. But if funds are tight, don't waste too much on signs unless your candidate is named John Wayne and he is running for County Sheriff (or some similar luck of the draw).

Radio achieves Name Recognition. It is more flexible and penetrating than any sign, flier or bumper sticker. Yet it remains short enough to avoid losing the voter's attention or, worse still, being seen as an annoyance. This is a name-brand country. Products are purchased based on confidence, familiarity and trust. Votes are cast in the same manner. What could be better for a candidate's branding than to be sandwiched between a Kraft and a Coke commercial?
Voter Connection depends on issue communication. Once a voter has committed a name to memory, the next step is to associate it with positive opinions. This is where radio shines over other mediums. The tone, sound and mood conveyed on air elevate the message and strengthen the bond with voters. Every radio commercial is a cost and time effective way to knock on a lot doors at one time.

In the 2006 US Senate race in Texas, over 95% of the population did not know who my candidate was as of July 2006. Four months later, with the use of radio (no billboards or major television) over 1,550,000 votes were cast for her. Everyone involved with the campaign knows that radio was the difference.

Scottradio.com - Political Advertising Agency and Voice Works specializing in radio.
Scott R Perreault (CEO, http://www.scottradio.com/) is the author of the new book “Effective Political Radio Messages and Robo Calling - The Guide for Candidates and Special Interest Groups”(ISBN # 978-1-885649-00-3). A must have guide for campaign managers, candidates, special interest groups and educators who live in the U.S. political world. (http://www.scottradio.com/campaignmanager.html) Designed for the 2008 campaign, this book offers a detailed outline on writing an effective political campaign commercial, the inside tips for obtaining the best radio station rates and robo calling script writing tools. After reading this short book delivered instantly in Adobe Acrobat or Microsoft Word so upon purchase you be armed with the required information needed for success in your local, State or National Election. (printed version and CD Audio Book also available)The author is a twenty-year political radio copywriter and professional voice that serves as media consultant for Texas Democratic US Senate Candidate.