Political Research - Praying for Rain on Election Day

Running for office at any level requires a myriad of skills. Resourcing, outsourcing, researching, fund raising, run-blocking, bullet dodging, story spinning...and, er, maintaining brevity of message. Over the past twenty years as a political and media consultant, there is one desirable skill I have yet to obtain. I can't control the weather.

Don't worry, my desire is not to out-maneuver the Justice League of America and topple world governments with some grand plot worthy of the comics.

Research and polling are, of course, part of any comprehensive approach to election day success. If you have a small budget, do random polls of fifty people in your district. If you have the funds, hire a professional firm to map the landscape. We all know that this research 1) ascertains your probability of success and 2) plots the path to success. It is important to realize that it also can show you under what conditions success is most likely. How will you feel if it is in your best interest for most of the electorate to stay home?

Even when you perfectly research and analyze, sometimes a lucky event is needed. Bite the bullet and admit you are in it to win; pray for rain and let them stay home.
Even when you have done all the research and have all the data at your disposal, you miss the critical connection. Suck it up and learn a hard lesson, for not even rain may save you. I have a good example of this situation.

As media advisor for the 2006 Texas U.S. Senatorial candidate, I did extensive research. No assumptions were made. The candidate was Barbara Ann Radnofsky – a last name too difficult for traditional recognition techniques, like repetition. The campaign planned an entire media approach around the name “Barbara Ann.” How much more Texan can you get than “Barbara Ann?” Overnight the yard sign and bumper sticker design changed. Print media and banners at events displayed “Barbara Ann.” Most made the assumption that the label “Barbara Ann” was the best choice. I did not.

Experienced political consultants are cautious: too many years, too many assumptions, too many burns. In polling, I included questions about “Barbara Ann.” The most basic question was, “Do you like the name 'Barbara Ann?'” Twenty-one percent did not. This percentage fell into two age and ethnic groups. The old yard signs were still sitting in storage. We could have easily distributed them on a geo-demographic basis. We could have easily customized emails to these groups.

But it was too late. So, do your research. Never hesitate to run a regression of one statistic against another. Always poll on questions that challenge your core assumptions and strategy.
Be ready to pray for rain.

Are All Votes Equally Important? The Art of Political Triage.

As a media consultant and advisor during a major political campaign I am often asked to field inquiries from supporters of the candidate. Many have words of encouragement, some have constructive criticism and some have serious emotional issues requiring professional attention. If you have ever been part of a political campaign you understand my words.

From the moment campaign headquarters' front door swings open, the nature of the beast is apparent. Imagine the excitement and affirmation felt when the first volunteer walks in to sign up. Now imagine what dark details you might not be aware. Say, perhaps, that this person has been kindly removed from every campaign headquarters in this past thirty years. “People issues.”

Many people don't anticipate having to be a personnel director. But someone has to do it. Read books on the art of rejection: How to fire, how to say no, how to remain polite. Each volunteer has unique motives for helping the campaign. Few are sinister, most are heartfelt and true. Respect the differences, but demand they work within the framework and structure you have put in place.

Despite best efforts, eventually the tough question must be asked: Are all votes equal? The public answer is always Yes. In reality, this is not the case. On some level it is all quid pro quo. You must develop a finely tuned filter – know where to draw the line. Most cold calls and emails will serve only to distract. Have a standard thank you email reply form. End the dialog quickly. Stay true to your message and maintain your campaign's integrity.

Radio stations treat listeners the same way you should treat solicitous voters. They certainly don't play every song request called in. They have invested millions of dollars in staff, equipment, advertising, programming and market testing to target a specific audience. It is important to understand that the typical request caller might not be a good match for the typical listener. Similarly, complaints about the music come from individuals. No matter how many complaints are received, the station knows its music is the best fit for the target audience.
This isn't to say such input should be brushed off. When a listener calls to complain about the music, he is made to feel that action will be taken. When a listener calls to request a song, she is told that it will play soon. Always listening, always placating, always providing a caring voice, but never deviating from the goal.

Take these lessons from radio and apply them to your campaign. Essentially, trust your numbers and demographic research. The angry listener will listen again. Unsatisfied voters will still vote – they called you, not the other guy. Stick with the message your candidate believes in and is supported by numbers.

Oh, and don't put it past your opposition to swamp you with distracting emails and phone calls.
Stay focused. Have responses posted and ready for all negative comments. In the end, they are unimportant.